Saturday, June 4, 2011

Market Update for Saturday, June 4, 2011

The markets are scaring most longs. The S&P 500 seems in no-man's land as it has broken through support at the 100 SMA and the daily RSI hasn't reached oversold conditions.

Where are we headed? That's anyone's guess. I have read 2 technical sites that are hoping for support between the 1292 and 1295 level. Since I am still holding UPRO, I hope they are right. However, if the S&P 500 were to break solidly below the 1295 area this would dramatically increase the probability of a failed Inverse Head and Shoulders breakout which could lead to an eventual drop back to the 200 Day EMA at 1261 or the previous low at 1249. A trend-line on the weekly chart from the March 2009 low through previous lows, coincides with this value, so this scenario seems quite possible.

What could move the markets higher? On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks and usually when he speaks, the markets rebound; thus, I am hoping Monday we will see the low or a temporary low and the markets won't move much and on Tuesday after Ben speaks, the markets will begin moving higher. If the markets move higher and an opportunity arrives, I will sell my UPRO position.

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